Trump Saves The Quarter Pounder And An American Ally

(Originally published at Forbes.)

The supply of beef in the U.S. market is at a seven-decade low, consumer prices for beef are at near-record highs, and Americans are foregoing their beloved burgers and steaks for cheaper sources of protein. To remedy the shortage, President Trump is opening the door for Argentina to ship more beef to the U.S. Such a measure would augment supply and help restrain prices, while reinforcing U.S. relations with a regional ally being aggressively courted by Beijing.

Although U.S. cattlemen are profiting handsomely and would prefer to quell discussion of the issue altogether, Americans are facing a serious beef shortage. According to the Department of Agriculture, the inventory of all U.S. beef cattle in 2025 was 27.9 million heads, down 1% from 2024, which was down 2% from 2023, which was 4% below 2022 levels. Today’s beef herd is the smallest since 1951.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the connection between waning supply and skyrocketing prices. Ground beef prices were over 12% higher in August 2025 than in August 2024, for example. Those inflation figures well exceed the 5.4% rise in overall meat prices.

In a well-functioning market, higher prices encourage producers to offer more supply. But the U.S. beef industry is far from well-functioning. It is disjointed on account of restrictive trade policies, acrimonious supply chain relations, and excessive regulations, all of which add frictions and raise costs that slow the capacity of suppliers to respond. The prospect of attaining higher profits from withholding supply is also a factor. There is plenty of blame to go around for current conditions, but the immediate focus should be on opening the U.S. market to imports.

Despite the iconic American imagery of tough, leather-necked, fiercely independent cowboys summoning their grit and ingenuity to tame the unforgiving environment and rigors of their hardscrabble profession, today’s cattlemen are also proficient at politics and reliant on their elected officials in Washington to solve their problems. That arrangement has been quite fruitful.

Trade restrictions in the form of tariff-rate quotas have persisted for decades. For years, Australia and New Zealand have been primary beneficiaries, unable to fill their quotas but flooding expensive beef into the U.S. market. 

Meanwhile, fabricated concerns over foot and mouth disease have created a labyrinth of non-tariff barriers to entry. For decades, the cattlemen have been committed to compelling mandatory country of origin labeling for beef products, which (in years passed) have forced processors, grocers, and consumers to absorb the costs of ranchers’ marketing efforts. 

In a country where production of beef falls 2 million tons short of the amount consumed, President Trump’s proposal to increase Argentina’s tariff rate quota from 20,000 to 80,000 tons of beef would provide a reasonably sound source of relief for American consumers. The largest source of those imports last year was Australia (24.3%), and New Zealand accounted for 12.1%, making it the fifth-largest source. Argentina accounted for only 2.1% of U.S. beef imports.

At most, then, imports of Argentine beef would increase to account for 4% of all imports and 0.67% of total U.S. consumption. Moreover, any increase in imports from Argentina would be relatively small and, in most cases, a reallocation of allotted supply from Australia (which is unable to meet its current quota) and New Zealand. That would help to reduce price pressures at a cost to ranchers and cattle-state politicians so indiscernible as to make their howls of protest an uncowboy-like source of embarrassment.

In fairness, Biden era regulations on grazing and access to water, as well as droughts, floods, and other acts of God have squeezed ranchers’ profits over the past several years. These costs have deterred the market entry of new ranchers, slowed the process of rebuilding the herds, and made beef affordability a pressing concern.

But Americans – including the President himself – love their Big Macs. The most effective way to rein in rising prices without compromising on quality is to supplement domestic supply with imports from places with the same high standards that Americans expect.

In the bigger commercial and strategic pictures, reallocating beef quota that Australia doesn’t use to Argentina will serve to strengthen an important regional alliance, cultivate new market opportunities for U.S. industries, and advance U.S. geopolitical interests. The Trump administration is hoping to reach rare earth mineral deals with the Argentine government and has been encouraging President Milei to push back against China’s increasing presence in Argentina. The change in beef policy could factor into Milei’s thinking.

To restore balance to the U.S. beef market and strengthen relations with an important ally, President Trump’s proposal is an excellent start.